Randomness and Inertia

I hit a four-team English Premiership parlay, a four-team NFL parlay, and got a piece of an eight-team NFL parlay this past weekend. Fortuna smiles on me, for these wins put me far ahead for the football season. Unless I do something stupid, a definite possibility, I will finish a winner by the end of the Super Bowl. English football is another story.

I have had two losing seasons during the past sixteen years of picking football teams, which perplexes me. Picking winners in football is a random event, yet I have finished ahead 87.5% of the seasons. I suppose a random sample of 16 is not large enough to prove or disprove my ability as a football game predictor.

I was out at a bar with my good friend Tom last Friday night. We were talking about moving to a warmer climate. I said I would like to move to Las Vegas so that I could sit around the casinos, bet on sports all day, and cadge the free drinks. I would comp a free dinner at a casino each night and then trundle off to bed. He thought it would be perfect for me.

The sky is clear and it has warmed considerably this week from Chicago’s first blast of arctic air. Thoughts of Las Vegas and other warmer climates lose their radiance when it is nice weather in Chicago. I really love living downtown in the summer and fall. The only thing that is missing is a casino where I can bet on sports. There is an off track betting parlor about a mile down the street, but I need more action than just the horses.

I have a two-team parlay in the Premiership this afternoon. I have Chelsea and Arsenal. Arsenal has disappointed me quite a bit this season. I would be far ahead in English football if it were not for them. Fox Sports is broadcasting the Chelsea/Newcastle game live this afternoon. I’m stoked.

I have been betting parlays this season. Watching the long shot gamble come home is a kick. I needed the Chicago Bears to win by more than 6 points in their game Monday night to click on my weekend parlays. Devin Hester, a Bear, returned two punts for touchdowns to save the day for me. It does not get any better than that.

Betting on sports is the perfect illusion. You think you are doing something when you doing nothing at all. It is the perfect mix of inertia and randomness.

The Chelsea/Newcastle game is coming up, so I must run.