Geography, Statistics, and So Not Persuaded

I recall a quiz given to the American public around the time of the invasion of Iraq. The quiz showed that a shockingly large number of Americans could not locate Iraq on a world map. Given the grave nature of the Iraq conflict, the result is almost unbelievable. Americans do not do well on quizzes like this. You see similar results on basic science, economics, etc. literacy tests. America appears a country containing many folks with a willful lack of intellectual curiosity. The results of the geography quiz seemed particularly egregious since Iraq had been prominently featured in the news since the Gulf War.

I will freely admit that I am no paragon of erudition. It's been awhile since I've looked at the current world map. (Note to self: look at the current world map.)

I listened to President Bush's speech this morning. It is difficult for me to stay focused on what he is saying. I read too much. I read things like the Brookings Institute's Iraq Index, a compendium of statistics about the war. President Bush's vague anecdotal evidence about improvement in the conduct of the Iraq war and reconstruction doesn't impress me much. The Strategy for Victory document persuades me as little as President Bush's speeches.

The Strategy for Victory is almost totally devoid of hard statistics and metrics that would indicate a successful strategy for winning the Iraq War. A brand manager would not go into her annual budget meeting with the big boss with something as mushy as that. The meeting would be over in less than five minutes.

Some claim war is different than business. That it is. That is all the more reason not to be taken in by sloganeering, and demand some hard numbers and milestones.

I predicted during the Murtha incident that the Bush Administration would trot out the idea that if we did not defeat terrorists in Iraq, we would have to fight them in the streets of America. The Bush Administration has not disappointed me yet. President Bush's speech today reaffirms my prediction. I wish I could do as well in my football wagers.

The recent disastrous 9/11 Commission report card on Homeland Security gives the lie to concerns about fighting terrorism in the streets of America. Homeland Security spending has been highlighted by pork barrel spending since its inception. Small town America has gotten some nice new parks with the money. New York City is spending their own money on heightened security.

It mirrors the confusion of just how much has been done to improve Iraq security during the past couple of years. The Bush Administration announces that we cannot leave until Iraq is secure. A critic says, yes, security is all messed up in Iraq. The Bush Administration responds, no, we have 95 trained Iraqi battalions and tens of thousands of trained police. It is a tennis game without balls, rackets, or a net.

The result of a duly constituted government will provide the test this next year as to everyone's real intentions. I can't wait to see what happens. I see more civil war and three Iraqs on the horizon. Feel free to remind me just how wrong I am if things turn out differently. I can take it. Even somebody as skeptical as me hopes he is wrong about his most dire predictions. Winning a football wager against the home team is not always satisfying.

Just to obfuscate issues even more, the moral war idea gets trotted out every now and then--freedom and democracy and all that jazz. Critics of the war who reference deep philosophical issues and ideas about just wars get summarily dismissed as defeatist. The exigencies of the moment override the underlying goals, motives, and basic morality of the conflict. The incompetence of the Commander-in-Chief prosecuting the war trumps any meaningful discussion about moral and strategic issues.

The Bush Administration has a real problem. They are now, against their will, engaged in persuasive argumentation with not only their critics, but the American public--the same American public who could not locate Iraq on the world map before the war started. I expect folks have gotten a lot more educated about where Iraq is and much more confused about what the war is about. The reasons for the war and its continuation has become a soup du jour. Some soup looks like it might taste good, and others don't look very appetizing.

President Bush has decided to preach to the choir during the holidays. Those who might be persuaded about the need for the war are so much rabble out of doors.

As an intellectual exercise I find it interesting to put my politics aside and apply the rules of informal logic and persuasive argumentation to what President Bush says. I am so not persuaded. The Presidential election debates showed that persuasive argumentation is not President Bush's strong suit. Preaching to the choir suits his style better. The problem for President Bush is that many in the choir are choosing to become part of the rabble out of doors.