Cubs Chances - 2006 Edition

As you know, we do it at State Street so you don't have to.

Now that the season has passed the quarter way mark, what are the Cubs chances of righting the ship and making the playoffs?

I ran a 25 trial Monte Carlo simulation on the Cubs remaining 119 games. The Cubs winning percentage stands at .419. The Cincinnati Reds stand at .568 and would get the Wild Card spot if the season ended today. So I used a p-value of .419 for the Bernoulli trials and assumed that the Cubs needed to win enough games for a .568 winning percentage.

In 25 trials the Cubs did not finish over .500 once let alone achieve a .568 winning percentage.

If you are betting the Cubs to win the World Series, you better be asking for some seriously long odds. I see the Cubs have fallen to 50-1 to win the World Series in the betting futures. Those odds may not be good enough to take the bet.