I wager even though I know I cannot win
I start betting on pro football games today. Here is how it works for me.
My Internet bookie adds 5% to my money if I deposit it on Thursday. If I bet on Friday, my Internet bookie only charges me 5% juice. The combination of the two means I pay no juice on my wagers.
I believe the statistical studies, that show wagering against the point spread in football is a 50-50 proposition. I will win half my bets. When I bet no-juice, I will break even in the long run. It is a coin flip, zero expectation proposition.
So, what is the fun in betting? I like to bet because I am lucky. I win more than half the time. Of course, I run the numbers on the teams, and try to convince myself I have a system based on what the numbers say, but I know it is all luck.
I know I will break even in the long run, but I act as if I can beat the game.
I grew up in the gambling culture. Betting on sporting events is in my blood. I loved the TV show Maverick when I was young. I learned to play poker and blackjack, and shoot dice because of that show. I am a member of the gambling culture, and that partially explains my irrational actions despite knowing I cannot win.
The only time I gambled for more money than I could afford to lose was back in college. I played in some poker games that definitely helped me pay the rent. It was not much like gambling in those poker games. Many of the players were so drunk and stoned that they were easily parted from their money.
I consider myself an informed bettor. I know the odds, games, and strategies that lessen the odds against me. I have read the academic research literature on sports betting. I look for deals like the one my Internet bookie gives me.
I will be dusting off my trusty pro football betting spreadsheet today, plugging in the numbers, and identifying where the bookies have it all wrong. The drudgery is boring right up until the time I lay my money down, the game starts, and I get the adrenaline rush.
I am sitting in downtown Chicago writing this on a beautiful day. And if somebody reads this that will be a big bonus. How lucky is that?
Will my luck hold, or will the world come crashing down around me? Will you still love me, dear reader, even if I lose?
posted by Lynn @ 10:09 AM
2 comments
2 Comments:
I come from a totally non-gambling culture -- a poor and religious family. Gambling still goes against the grain although I will buy the very occasional lottery ticket and I once (confession time) put a few bucks in the slots.
AC,
I always buy a random number quick pick ticket instead of playing numbers like birthdays. The chances are that other people are playing those same numbers, so that when I hit the big one (hope springs eternal they say) I will have to split the pot with them. A random number makes it far less likely that I am playing the same number as somebody else and less likely I will have to share the prize. The state takes a large percentage out of the winnings, but in huge lotteries when the prize gets large, the mathematical expectation turns in the player's favor. I love walking around with a lottery ticket in my pocket, thinking I am going to be rich beyond my wildest imagination. It's cheap entertainment for a dollar.
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